Research On Project Risk Assessment And Dynamic Control Based On PERT

With rapidly modernizing step and national economy of our county, the quantity of construction projects enlarged greatly. All of these bring about the rising investment, prolongation and the number of uncertain factors of construction projects. There are more potential possibilities for a construction project to be out of control. Time, cost and quality are main control object in construction project management. They must be considered together to manage construction project reasonably because they are interdependent and mutual influence. Time management is particularly critical under the prerequisite of guaranteeing quality. It is also an important content of the project organization’s objectives. Therefore, it is very important to study the risk management of the project. In order to estimate and predict the influence of the risk factors more accurately, a model of risk assessment for the project duration under multiple influencing factors is proposed, and provides the basis for the latter dynamic control.In this paper, engineering construction project is taken as an example, risk assessment of project duration and dynamic control are studied systemic. Risk identification, risk assessment and the control management of progress are mainly discussed. Firstly, the present situation and development direction of the study on the risk assessment of the project duration are introduced. The purpose and significance of the study, the study content, technology route in this paper are proposed. The risk, the risk management, the risk management of duration and the method of risk identification for engineering construction projects are introduced, which are the theoretical basis for the construction project risk assessment. After that, the critical path method and the program evaluation and review technology of the network plan technology are introduced, after progress risk analysis, after determining the good and bad points of the method, the program evaluation and review technology as the essential method is chosen and improved. Secondly, the dynamic control method of the duration risk of the project is made a detailed summary. Combined with practical project, the project duration is simulated using the improved PERT and @risk analysis software. With the simulation results, applying dynamic control in the process of project implementation, satisfactory results were obtained. This paper obtains the achievement includes:One, the PERT is improved. Firstly, the risk factors affecting the project duration are analyzed and some different assumptions about the distribution of the delay time caused by each risk factor made to determine the impact on each work. These avoid the assumption of a single beta distribution. Then, each path’s duration is simulated used risk analysis software, in this process, there are not assuming that the critical path is one or more, and the number of works on the critical line is not required. Two, a model of risk assessment for the project duration under multiple influencing factors is proposed. In practical project, with the simulation results, the method of dynamic control in the process of project implementation is applied.Finally, according to above achievement, the difficulties and the place need to improve of the model are proposed. Accordingly, the further study aspect is proposed.