The Study On The Evaluation Method Of The Risk Degree Of The Navigation Environment In Port

The vessel accidents happen occasionally with traffic density increasing greatly due to a mount of vessels navigating in port, as well as the development of ship's amount and types and tonnage becoming larger and larger with the development of the shipment. Any vessel accidents are affected by the current environment factors among different reasons. It is easy to cause defects when navigating in an adverse environment. So there is a close connection between environment and the vessel accidents. To study the internal connection between environment and the vessel accidents is significant for the enhancement of the navigation safety and the improvement of the navigation environment in port. At present, it is still inadequate in the quantitative study on the influencing degree of the vessel accidents caused by environment.This dissertation compares some math methods and chooses the Grey System Theory as a tool to evaluate the vessel traffic safety, which achieves a satisfactory result. In addition, the study result of choosing the environment factors' evaluation level is borrowed.Six chapters are divided in this dissertation. The present condition of the study on method of the evaluation of the danger degree is reviewed in chapter 1, which includes the comparing the common math tools and the expounding the study meaning. The vessel traffic safety evaluation process is analyzed and discussed in detail in chapter 2. Base on the conventional experts' experience and the conclusion of navigation simulation, the environment factors is analyzed in chapter 3. The paper introduces the notion of traffic flow and vessel flow. According to the practical observation, a math method to calculate the traffic capacity is discussed. A Grey Incidence analysis model is set up to analyze incidence degree between environment factors and the vessel accidents in port in order to find out the instinct reason in chapter 4. That the visibility and the vessel traffic are the most two important factors is concluded. The evaluation principle and the selection of weight of each factors and the rating of the risk degree are studied in chapter 5. A Grey evaluation model is set up to divide ports into different risk classification according to the environment factors. Atlast, the conclusion and the shortage of the dissertation are summarized.The research can enrich the study method on vessel traffic evaluation. It establishes a good foundation for the further development of the study on Vessel Flow.