Study Of The Quantitative Evaluation Methods Of Technical Risk Of Aids To Navigation

The paper studies and identifies the quantitative evaluation methods of technical risk of aids to navigation intently. Based on the related conclusions both in and outside China and experts consultation , the paper expounds the conception of risk and technical risk and the corresponding evaluation index system. Furthermore, by using separately the grey incidence analysis method, fuzzy neural network method and fuzzy synthesis evaluation, the paper establishes explicitly the weight of each risk control option in the technical risk evaluation index system of aids to navigation and sort them.According to the consistent conclusion of the three applied methods, the paper demonstrates the feasibilities for the three quantitative methods of technical risk evaluation of aids to navigation.By discriminating the respective characteristic of the three methods, the paper considers the grey incidence analysis method as the chief.The paper also provide a scientific theory basis and a research method for technical risk evaluation of aids to navigation , it will instruct the technique rebuilding for aids to navigation in future.