Western Regional Road Traffic Forecasting Methods Research

With the development of our national economy and the improvement of people's living standards, highway traffic and transportation has been taking great development, as the demand of development of economy and society. In light of the strategy 'stimulating domestic demand' and 'developing western region' in our country, highway construction is highly advanced and the grade and network of highway has been improved. The traffic prediction is very important in highway construction, so studying the traffic prediction is meaningful for highway construction.In this paper the theory and method of traffic prediction are studied. It includes the predictions of the trend of the social economy development, generating traffic, traffic distribution, stimulating and transferring traffic and traffic assignment. It holds that the prospective traffic is made up of the natural increasing traffic, the future stimulating and transferring traffic. And then based on the genetic algorithm a new method of traffic prediction is put forward .The economy development is predicted and the 'traffic-economy' developing model is established on the base of the statistics of the traffic and economy in the regions influenced by the project. Then according to the trend of economy developing and the results and character of these predictions, the original traffic and destination traffic at every point are predicted. Secondly, the traffic distribution in space is predicted on the base of the tragic distribution of the original year and the characteristic years in the future. Thirdly, according to the prospective traffic distribution and the situation of the highway network, thetraffic is distributed to the project and every highway related. Last, putting the method in the traffic prediction of existing road shoes that this method is applicable develops in the region where develops fast .In this way, the difficulty of traffic prediction in 'developing western region' is solved.