Analysis Method Of Multi-factor Weighting Of Dam Safety Evaluation And Its Application

The paper discusses some questions of multi-factor weighting in dam safety analysis. It plays emphases on the establish of weight of evaluation index , objective weight, subjective weight and comprehensive weight .The main contents are as follows:(1) Aiming at the characteristics of comprehensive evaluation of dam safety, four characteristics of weight are analyzed. And rules of making evaluation index are given. And then a general weight -system of dam safety is established on the base of the rules.(2) A information weighting model based on the methods of PCA and new PPA is presented. The combined model is set up on the principle of optimization. Owing to the predominance of dealing with nonlinearity and uncertainty of WUIRN net, the back-analysis model of information weighting is established by use of experts' ability of harmonization.(3) Aiming at the characteristics of weight, applying the fuzzy theory a expert weighting model is constructed based on the farther study of AHP. The paper also discusses the problem of expert weighting uncertainty, and then a uncertainty weighting method is given .The degree of deviation and the degree of authority are evaluated to modify the experts' subjective weight in two steps .(4) Disadvantages of subjective and objective weights, and of not considering weight randomness in the combined weighting model are discussed. The randomness of weight based on Bayes' theory is studied in principle of loss function. The weight with statistic meaning is combined. By so doing, the weight is more objective and effective.