Comparison And Selection Of Reservoir Efficiency Expansion Project Based On Combined Weighting-Variable Weight Fuzzy Evaluation ModelMajor:Water Conservancy Project

Water resources are the most important basic natural resources for sustainable development in northern Shaanxi.The sustainable use of water resources is related to the social progress of Shaanxi and even Shaanxi Province,the overall development of economic development and comprehensive well-off society.In order to improve the local water shortage in northern Shaanxi,many reservoirs have been built in northern Shaanxi.However,due to the high sediment concentration of rivers in northern Shaanxi,the main problem facing the existing reservoirs in northern Shaanxi is due to siltation problems or the urban water consumption has increased,and the resulting storage capacity has gradually decreased or even disappeared,and the water supply efficiency has gradually shrunk,directly affecting the layout and development of the national economy in northern Shaanxi.The traditional efficiency expansion and expansion plan has been applied in northern Shaanxi,but the comparison and selection of the reservoir efficiency expansion plan is the key to its construction.It is affected by factors such as investment,efficiency and construction difficulty.These types of influencing factors are numerous,different in nature,and fuzzy uncertainties are prominent,making it difficult to quantify the pros and cons of the evaluation scheme.There is no specific evaluation for these three options.In view of this,this paper intends to use the combination weighting-variable weight fuzzy evaluation model method to compare and optimize the reservoir efficiency expansion plan.In view of the fuzzy uncertainty affecting the factors of the scheme and the advantages and disadvantages of the evaluation scheme,it provides a scientific and effective decision-making method for the comparison and selection of reservoir efficiency expansion and expansion schemes in northern Shaanxi.The main research contents and achievements are as follows:(1)Analysis of the necessity of reservoir efficiency expansion and expansion.Taking the A reservoir project in Yan'an as an example,the current situation of the reservoir project is analyzed,and the comprehensive development objectives of the reservoir are analyzed from three aspects:flood control and water supply.Based on this,the necessity analysis of reservoir expansion and expansion is carried out.(2)Design of reservoir eff-iciency expansion and expansion plan.According to the hydrology,geological conditions and engineering status in the A reservoir area,three different schemes were initially selected for comparison.The first option is the dredging plan;the second option is the upstream cultivating and heightening dam;the third option is the downstream levee height.On this basis,the finite element model was established for the three schemes,and the seepage stability and dam slope stability calculation were carried out,and comparative analysis was carried out.The results show that the leakage of the three schemes is small,and the permeability of the dam body is less than the allowable penetration ratio,which meets the requirements of the specification.Moreover,the anti-sliding stability safety factor of the upper and lower dam slopes of the dam is greater than the standard value to meet the requirements of the specification,thus indicating that the three schemes are feasible on the technical level.Then,using the traditional comparison method,the three options are comprehensively compared and selected from the aspects of investment analysis,benefit analysis,analysis of construction diff-iculty and analysis of downstream water supply tasks.It is concluded that the downstream dam reinforcement scheme is superior to the other two schemes.(3)Based on the combination weighting-variable weight fuzzy evaluation model,the reservoir synergy expansion plan comparison study.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory,the evaluation index system of reservoir efficiency expansion and expansion is constructed,and the weighting values of the three schemes are obtained by the combined weighting-variable weight method.Finally,the three schemes are comprehensively selected based on the fuzzy evaluation model.According to the calculation,“the downstream dam reinforcement scheme is better than the other two schemes".Therefore,the "downstream dam reinforcement scheme" is selected as the recommended scheme.The relevant research results in this paper can provide decision-making basis for the efficiency improvement and expansion of reservoirs in northern Shaanxi,and can also provide reference for the design of synergistic expansion and expansion in similar areas.It can also sum up experience for the existing reservoir project and provide ideas for future management decisions.