Hubei Province Flood Forecast System Research And Application

The flood is more frequently in Hubei province, and the task of preventing or controlling flood is more heavily. So it is extremely urgency to build the Flood Control and Anti-Headquarters Decision Support System for Hubei province, and flood-forecast system is a key sub-system of it. The result of its forecast is a foundation of consulting, controlling and dispatching, information service, taking the gauge of disaster situation. The Research purpose was to apply the technique of real time rectification base on Rainfall data that was provided by the sub-system of real time water, rainfall and elephant product. Combined the expert's experience, it completed the different long predicting time and precision for main course of river, point flood control the reservoir in region, and serve for hydrology department to make the decision. This research of information system would be benefit for defending flood disaster in Hubei province.This dissertation was composed summarize, basic theories, system module design, forecast process demonstrating and problem discussion. This dissertation elaborated the flood-forecast system based on the studying on the theories, model and practices of flood forecast. Especially, the dissertation studied the fundamental structure of conceptual hydrological models and mathematical of flood-forecast, and then brought forward a new method to build new model named "model structure-parameter method". This method plus the computer technology make it possible to build flood-forecast model automatically for all the forecast stations of each of valley in Hubei province.We could use model structure-parameter method to build model in the system and the user could choose the appropriate model based on the character of this valley. All the parameters was worked out and optimized by system using auto-optimize method. This avoided the subjective mistakes by man and saved a lot of time.In the system design, it absorbed the data management model of the United States interactive river forecast system ( USIRFS/ IFP). The advanced was not only for the system's design principle, function, technique project, the developing way of thinking and so forth of aspect, but also for the aspect of data management. Because of the technique advantage of data structure and data stream cause, the interactive river flood forecast could be realized in this system. The interactive flood forecast system's operation was more convenience, and the practical function was strong. It could availably exert expert's experience, so increased the forecast accuracy. That system could transfer and show the weather information directly, so the basis was objective toexpert system to interactive forecast. At real time flood forecast, it could make use of the history rain-storm flood data, so could take the advantage of expert experience, which accumulated form forecasting process of history flood analysis.On the basis of carefully analyze flood forecast step, workflow and data stream process, flood forecast system design was compose of five function modules, which was the data pre-processing, the flood forecast model establishment and management, the putting real time query, flood forecast, the help on line and maintenance mold piece. The help mold can offer help on line whenever user demand.As geography information system application for water conservancy profession, we tried to apply latest the GIS technique, the computer software technique and the network technique in the research process, to combine the technique of 3S,4 D etc to geography information technique of second times development. The total construction used the cross-platform's B/ S system, and the distributed processing network system. The application database system, which was a distributed processing real time application system, was established at the Sybase platform, which had strong ability of image processing, multimedia supporting and distributed processing. It made the GIS applied, Internet application, decision support system to combine, completing...