Study On Risk Decision-Making Method For Concrete Risk & Dangerous Dams

In this dissertation, the risk decision-making for concrete dams is specially studied based on the theory of risk analysis. The main contents are as fellows:(1) The methods of risk and danger identification are studied by use of the fieldwork and the monitoring data. The risk and danger identification model for concrete dams is established based on information fusion. In the end the risks and dangers are identified by use of this model.(2) For the risk and dangerous dams, the destroy route is identified. The probability of destroy is also estimated. Besides, the dam break loss analysis and evaluation are discussed.(3) Separate the risk decision-making for dams as four sub-decision-making, namely risk evaluation for dams in service,best treatment for risk and dangerous dams, the risk selection of rehabilitation and the optimization rehabilitation model. The risk decision-making system for risk and dangerous dams is established.(4) According to the risk selection of rehabilitation for risk and dangerous dams, the risk selection model is established base on the risk index. In the end, the Gu Tianxi cascade dams are taken as an example, and an rehabilitation action is present for these dams.(5) The dam-removal manage is introduced and analyzed synthetically based on a great deal of foreign inference. The silt manage and ecosystem revival because of dam removal are mainly discussed.