BJ Air Traffic Flow Emulate Prototype Study And Development

With the rapid development of air transportation demand, air traffic is becoming more and more congested which results in more and more serious flight delay. How to imitate scientifically and forecast objectively the future air traffic flow, establish the air traffic flow management strategy on the basis of the emulate and forecast in order to relieve the airport and airspace congestion and reduce flight delay, is a very important task our civil aviation industry to be faced with. This paper studies the emulate technology of air traffic flow, and has achieved certain results as follows: 1.Flying time forecast Flying time forecast plays a key role in the air traffic flow emulate. Through analyzing and studying the characteristics of radar real time data by the way of time series forecasting, a flying time forecast model is set up based on floating average and regression analysis. This model is used to forecast the flying time of all daily flights, which fly over the corridors and handover points of Beijing area. Considering the forecast results will be varied according to different weather, this forecast model is provided with weather modulation function. At the same time, this paper provides validation to the model by the actual flying data of the capital airport. 2.The study of setting up a flight route database with flow emulate system This paper presents a new flight route database solution on the basis of analyzing and studying the domestic airspace structure, air traffic control (ATC) area partition and flight control handover characteristics. In this solution, it brings forward the Routes Splitting and Reallocating idea for the first time in which it splits airways into several routes according to the flight control handover relationship between traffic control units, and reallocates route numbers within the Beijing area. By Routes Splitting and Reallocating, the data disaccord by normal database setup method is avoided; the workload of database setup and management is much alleviated; and data query efficiency is approved. 3.The study of flow emulate technology on the basis of flight plan. This paper first gives the definition of air traffic flow in flight control area and provides a new method to calculate the air traffic flow. This method defines that in a certain time period, the sum of sectors flow makes up the control area flow, the sum of flight numbers over all the points in a sector makes up that sector flow. Based on this calculation method, we develop the air traffic flow emulate prototype for Beijing control area. This prototype works well in the trial operation and has certain acticality. 4.Flow emulate error modification For improving the accuracy of the flow emulate, this paper modifies the flow emulate error based on flight plan using the flight telegraph data.