Delay And Delay Propagation Prediction Of Terminal Area Traffic Flow Under Weather

With the rapid development of civil aviation transport industry,the demand of flights grows rapidly.the imbalance between airport capacity and traffic flow often leads to the occurrence of flight delays under the changes of weather conditions.In order to improve airport operational efficiency and reduce flight delays,airport flight departure delay prediction and flight delay propagation under the influence of weather become the focus of this paper.There are several factors affecting the airport capacity and flight delays,such as weather condition,runway configuration and operation modes,therefore,airport flight departure delay prediction,closely spaced parallel runway departure capacity assessment and delay forecast,and flight delay propagation forecast under the influence of weather are three main aspects of this papers.Firstly,according to the flights departure process,the departure delay is divided into the taxi delay and the departure queue delay.The corresponding tine of traffic flow information is matched,and simulate the airport taxiing conflict.prediction method of taxi delay time of departure flight based on many kinds of airport scene conflicts is proposed,then calculating departure queue delay time by queuing theory,so as to obtain the total departure delay time of the flight.Secondly,this paper develops analytical models for ultimate pairing departure operation capacity of closely spaced parallel control interval time between the former and the latter paired aircraft is based on departure wake interval criterion.Then calculates departure queue delay time by queuing theory and the pairing departure capacity model.Finally,discussing the theoretical process of delay propagation and according to the naive Bayesian classification method in Bayesian network,the model of flight delay propagation is established.The Bayesian toolbox is used to learn the existing historical data to predict the flight delay propagation.The prediction results are compared with the actual delay data to analyze the accuracy of the Bayesian network delay propagation prediction.