Study On The Risks Assessment And Risks Control Of Spilled Oil At Liaodong Bay Low-density Ice Field

The north icy sea is an important oil-exploiting area in our country, where oil spill events happen frequently in recent years. However, our country is still weak in the study on the primary assessment and emergency disposal methods of spilled oil at ice field. This paper mainly studys on the damage prediction and emergency disposal decision-making of spilled oil from oil tanks at Liaodong Bay ice field.First, the paper establishes the tidal current stadium and ice stadium prediction model of Liaodong Bay, calculated and simulated tidal current stadium at Liaodong Bay applying for finite difference methods, meanwhile, combining with momentum equation and continuum equation of sea ice, it establishes the sea ice floading model.Second, the paper establishes the spilled oil spreading and floading model at Liaodong Bay ice field, made the numerical prediction simulating to the spilled oil spreading and floading combining with numerical calculating result of tidal current stadiu. Meanwhile, it presents the time scattering method of successional leaking oil which inaugurates a new idea for the scientific prediction of oil spill behaviors.Third, based on the spreading and floading prediction result of spilled oil at Liaodong Bay ice field, the paper establishes spilled oil damage factors index system and their quantization standard combining with damage factors of the natural environment and natural resource conditions of oil spill sea field, spilled oil characteristics and spilled oil quantity and so on. It also establishes a reasonable damage grade assessment model for oil spillage at Liaodong Bay ice field, considering with the two main performance indexes of BP INN — learning speed and generalization ability. Then it establishes the initial training sample gather based on the damage factors index of typical oil spill cases, set one-to-one mapping relationship between damage factor and damage grade by MATLAB tool. After inspecting, the result is unanimous with predicting result. So this assessment model can completely assess the damage grade.Then, the paper makes 81 kinds of emergency disposal projects of spilled oil at Liaodong Bay low temperature and ice field, after combined with oil spillage damagegrade, existing spilled oil emergency disposal equipment and methods in our country, weather, sea situation, ice condition, spilled oil property, spilled oil quantity, spilled oil movement trend, the disposal methods of historical events and the distribution of spilled oil emergency response equipment and emergency troop.Finally, the paper exploits the expert system of Liaodong Bay spilled oil emergency response with VB, aiming at above contents. The system mainly includes four functions which are the establishment and emendation of databases (oil type database, Liaodong Bay function area database, spilled oil disposal equipment and emergency troop database, historical events of oil spill at ice field database and so on), spilled oil spreading and floading numerical simulation, spilled oil damage grade assessment and the establishment of emergency disposal projects.