Research On Assistant Decision-making Method For Railway Emergency Management

With the rapid development of China's railway construction,the establishing and operating of new high-speed railway lines,and the emerging of many unknown risks,the probability of railway incidents is greatly increased,so the railway emergency management is facing higher requirements.In order to meet the needs of railway emergency in new era,the railway emergency management system has to be perfected continuously by analyzing deeply the existing problems from the angle of considering the whole process of railway emergency management.Meanwhile,the improvement of railway emergency management and advancement of the emergency response capability are inseparable from the support of advanced theory and decision-making methods,therefore it is an urgent work to explore scientific and efficient decision-making method for railway emergency management according to actual situation.Based on the above requirements,this paper offers some proposals by excavating weak links of railway emergency management on the basis of analyzing the present situation.In particular,focusing on the drawbacks of unscientific methods and inefficiency in railway emergency decision-making,the paper studies the methods of optimization of railway emergency plans under normal situation and in emergency from the perspective of emergency lifecycle.The main research contents are as follows:(1)To make an overall description of railway emergency management based on the analysis of the existing railway emergency management theories and researches on railway emergency system construction.The railway emergency management system is fully interpreted in five aspects: railway emergency plan system,organization system,mechanism,legal system and guarantee system.To put forward pertinent proposals to strengthen China's railway emergency management system after summarizing the achievements and analyzing the underlying problems.To construct a four-level,including the railway corporation,railways bureau,primary organization and post of duty,railway emergency plan system by bringing grass-roots post emergency disposal procedure into railway emergency plan system.To build a framework of railway emergency management information system based upon new information technology,which will provide a useful reference for improving the railway emergency management system.(2)To propose a method of multi-attribute group decision-making on the basis of cloud model and TOPSIS aiming at the optimization problem of railway emergency plans.The evaluation index system of railway emergency plan is designed from four aspects of integrity,operability,pertinence and explicitness in responsibility.The uncertain transformation characteristic of cloud model helps effectuate the natural transformation between linguistic decision-making concepts of the decision-maker and quantitative values.The loss of decisionmaking information can be avoided by effectively integrating decision-maker attribute evaluation information using integrated cloud.Through comprehensive consideration of the influence of various subjective and objective factors,group decision-making attribute weights are obtained based on weighted backward cloud generator and entropy weight method,and then the optimization of emergency plan can be realized by virtue of the closeness coefficient of TOPSIS.The method gives a feasible reference for the management of railway emergency plan.(3)As for the decision-making problem of railway emergency response alternatives in emergency,we take many factors into consideration,including the randomness and fuzziness of decision-making information,multiple scenarios evolution,decision-maker's behavior characteristics under emergency and so on,therefrom a multi-attribute group decision-making method is presented based on prospect theory.The decision-making index system of railway emergency response alternative is made according to four aspects of feasibility,timeliness,anti-risk property and economical efficiency.Moreover,the linguistic decision-making information of decision-maker is converted into the cloud prospect value with prospect theory and cloud model,and the optimization model of attribute weight is formulated based on the principle of maximum prospect value of every alternative,and then the group decision-making prospect matrix of emergency alternatives is established.Finally,the decision-maker's weights are determined by group consistency and the maximum entropy,and the best alternative is obtained by comparing the whole prospect values of alternatives.The method provides assistant decision-making support for the selection of railway emergency response alternatives.(4)In view of the decision-making attribute correlation and the limited rationality behavior of decision-maker in the decision-making problem of railway emergency response alternatives,a multi-attribute group decision-making method is proposed based on regret aversion and attributes correlation.Introducing the regret aversion behavior of decision-maker to the process of emergency decision-making,the decision-making information of every attribute is converted into the perceived utility.Then,the perceived utilities of attributes are aggregated by using Choquet integral and Shapely value in every alternative,which can effectively solve the fuzziness and correlation problem of emergency decision-making attributes.Finally,the optimal alternative is obtained by comparing the comprehensive perceived utility values of alternatives.The method offers a new idea for the decision-making of railway emergency response alternatives.The above research enriches and expands the railway emergency management theory and railway emergency decision-making method.This paper has great reference value for improving the railway emergency management system and promoting the efficiency of railway emergency management.