The Management Decision-Making Methods For Handling Of Highway Emergencies

Since the 1990 s,China has made great achievements in the construction and development of highway,attracting worldwide attention.With the continuous implementation of various national plans and policy promotion,the highway will continue to maintain rapid development in the coming years.However,the realistic macro development background,such as the expansion of highways,the increase in car ownership,the rapid growth of transportation demand,and the changes in public travel modes,is bound to bring serious threats to the socio-economic development and people's life and property safety by increasing huge potential challenges facing the safety of highway operations and frequent major traffic emergencies.The situation of highway emergency management is grim,especially in the context of the holistic view of national security,which makes it more necessary to improve its emergency management decisionmaking capabilities.Meanwhile,the management decision-making capabilities are lacking in the current highway emergency management practice,which is mainly manifested in the practical problems such as weak management and command functions,insufficient coordination and linkage effectiveness,insufficient information communication and sharing,and poor decision-making methods.For this reason,facing the current severe situation,it is imminent to study how to build an appropriate emergency management decision-making method for highway,strengthen and improve emergency management decision-making capabilities,which is of great theoretical and practical significance.Based on the analysis of the current highway emergency management practices and the existing research,this dissertation discusses the present situation of expressway emergency management system,designs an empirical analysis method that excavates valuable information from the current management practice experience,and provides reference measures and suggestions for improving the emergency management system of highway.Then,in view of the insufficient management decision-making ability of the current emergency management information system,from the perspective of strengthening the integration of emergency information and facilitating the management decision,this research is to design the framework and functions of the cloud-based highway emergency management information system.Moreover,considering the importance of information in emergency management decision,this research establishes a highway emergency decision-making model and method from such two aspects as the decision information quality and the decision information updating.All achievements of the dissertation are summarized as follows:(1)This dissertation discusses the reference measures and suggestions for improving the emergency management decision-making ability of highway.Firstly,in view of the status quo of the emergency management system of typical provincial expressway,the characteristics and experience of the three management systems of "two-family administration ","upper division and lower integration,dependency administration" and "one-family administration" are compared and analyzed;Then,from the perspective of emergency management system,this dissertation analyzes four aspects as the legality of the law enforcement subject,the superintendence and restraint of law enforcement behavior,the integrity of the unity of rights and responsibilities and the efficiency of the operation model,and determines the key factors affecting the improvement of emergency management decision-making ability.Finally,focusing on these key influencing factors,an empirical analysis method based on the experience mining theory,is designed to mine valuable information of the measures and suggestion form the existing highway emergency investigation on RStudio platform.Based on the above analysis,the measures and suggestion to improve the emergency management decision-making ability of highway are discussed,which aims to improve the legal system construction and ensure the emergency response according to laws,strengthen centralized control and specialized division of labor and coordination,enhance the information construction of emergency management decision-making and improve the ability of information sharing,and then provide effective reference suggestion for the highway management departments or agencies.(2)The framework and function of highway emergency management information system driven by cloud technology is constructed.Firstly,the current situation of expressway network emergency management information system and the existing problems in system structure is systematically analyzed and expounded.Secondly,combined with the development environment of new information technology,the system building goals and ideas are presented.After the discussion of the coordinated control functional requirement and workflow of the traffic incidents,a new services platform architecture for highway operation management information system is proposed.The proposed architecture has three layers: traffic information sensing layer,network transport layer and the application layer of traffic management and service.Lastly,the management systems in platform implementation are discussed.The proposed system architecture solution provides a technology support that can achieve resource sharing and information exchange of traffic operation status and business management,and improve daily management efficiency and emergency management decision-making ability.(3)This dissertation conducts research on highway emergency alternative decisionmaking method based on the quality of decision information and proposes an integrated fuzzy method to deal with emergency alternative decision-making problem.The existence of information uncertainties and decision makers' psychological behavior are considered due to the complexity of emergency environments.By utilizing trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to depict the fuzziness and uncertainty of information,prospect theory is developed to portray DMs'(decision makers)heterogeneous psychological behavior and convert the initial decision matrixes into decision prospect matrixes.A thermodynamic approach that comprises operations on entropy,energy,and exergy is introduced to maximize the use of decision-making information,determine each criterion weight value,and assess information quantity and quality.Trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy Choquet integral operator and weighted averaging operator are presented to integrate the overall prospect value of each alternative.Based on the expert risk attitudinal parameter,sensitivity analysis is presented to investigate the robustness of the ranking results.As the parameter changes,the ranking results are explicitly observed.This process proves the use of the expert risk attitudinal factor in reducing the uncertainty of the obtained results in the real world.(4)Research on highway dynamic emergency alternative decision-making method based on the decision information updating is conducted.Considering the limitation of the single phase of emergency decision-making for the complex and uncertain environment,this dissertation proposes a multi-stage dynamic emergency decisionmaking model and method based on the psychological reference satisfaction preference information updating of DMs.Firstly,IVTr IFNs is used to depict the fuzziness and uncertainty of information for every stage of decision-making processing,and it can effectively overcome the practical judgment difficulty that DMs often cannot express the degree of membership,the degree of non-membership and the degree of hesitation with exact Numbers.Secondly,by utilizing the entropy weight method to obtain the objective weight of attribute for each event evolution stage,IVTr IFWA operator is applied to aggregate the preference value at each stage,so as to avoid the deviation of subjective weighting results.Then,the dissertation considers the dynamic evolution process of emergencies and the DMs' psychological reference expectation effect.Based on the analysis,the multi-stage dynamic principle of emergency decision method is proposed.The dynamic decision-making model based on the new psychological reference satisfaction parameter formula is presented to obtain the optimal satisfaction and weight of each stage.Finally,the value utility function based on the DMs' risk attitude is proposed to obtain the comprehensive value of each emergency alternative for each stage and achieve the ranking results of each stage.The research further reveals the change rule that the ranking results are affected by the DMs' risk attitude.The above research provides suggestions for the government to improve the capacity of highway emergency management under the current situation,and further enriches and expands the decision-making theory and method system of highway emergency management,which has important theoretical and practical significance.