Activity-Based Travel Demand Forcasting

The urban and the transportation systems, which are interacting each other and being consider as an organic matter. With the flourishing development of the city economy and the rapid increase in the amount of the population and vehicles,the contradiction between the transportation supply and demand becomes increasingly serious. The transportation system is coming into saturation and even super saturation, and the capital and land resources are very limited. On this condition, it is especially important for the development of the urban and transportation system to attach importance to planningTrip Generation based on the human being society economy activity. So it does,people must invest capital in constructing transportation system. Travel behavior theory is one of the most important theories in trafficplanning, management and control. Analyzing people's travel behavior based on travel demand forecasting,finding the key of the transportation problem, enacting corresponding Transportation Demand Management policy, and evaluating the effect of the TDM policy with the advanced activity-based travel demand forecasting model is one of the effective ways to solve the congested travel problem. By comparing and analyzing the residents' travel time, mode, destination and route before and after the implement of the TDM policy, the activity-based travel demand forecasting method can evaluate the anticipative effect of the TDM policy and provide basisfor the decision of the government.According to this condition,Discussion about travel , The thesis emphases consists of traffic behavior theory, Activity Based on theory, Disaggregate model,in this way,trying to set up a fresh method about travel.