Levee Risk Management And Application Related To External QINHUAI River Levee

Levee engineering risk management issues at home and abroad has been a high priority, but for their specific methods have not been thoroughly studied and theoretical progress. The dissertation is combined with the project "Reasearch on Risk Analysis and Risk Management for External Qinhuai River with Over-level Flood". Based on the theory and risk management processes, through the use of the levee engineering computation model and the uncertainty probability risk analysis methods, the risk coefficients for main invalidation codes of typical section of Qingliang Gate Bridge to Dinghuai Gate Bridge levee at external Qinhuai River are calculated, comprehensive risk for flood prevention is analyzed and appraised. Measures of risk reduction and advice of floodwater level run management in flood season for levee and advice of risk management for External Qinhuai River levee are put forward. The subject of the dissertation comes from practical project considered each risk failure of levee, risk analysis and the methods of risk management and decision-making simultaneously of levee engineering are researched. The main contents are outlined as follows:Firstly, the definition of risk, the conception and character of project risk are introduced, explained risk management concepts, purposes and principles, concluded the main elements of risk management;Introduced risk analysis methods such as including uncertainty analysis, direct integration method, MFOSM method, AFOSM method, MC method and so on;Summarized control style risk management and financial style risk management approach.Secondly, identified the risk genes of levee engineering and described the main factors of dikes;Analyzed the levee structure uncertainty factors, introduced risk computation model of the main invalidation codes about levee like hydrological risk, seepage destroy risk and slide non-stable destroy risk of dikes, and researched the flood-control comprehensive risk probability of levee engineering through integrating each risk computation model;Contraposing risk of the levee engineering, the management and decision-making simultaneously is put forward and risk analysis and risk management is administered.Thirdly, combining with the project "Reasearch on Risk Analysis and Risk Management for External Qinhuai River with Over-level Flood", applications based on the reliability of risk analysis methods, and to fully consider the operational characteristics of the dike, using methods validated statistics fit inquire floods spaces frequency curve;Fully consider uncertainty and compute hydrological accident risk probability, seepage destroy risk probability and slope non-stable destroy risk probability;According to the results of the risk analysis of the dike to lower the risk of dike engineering and non-engineering measures, as well as operational management dike proposal, Exterrnal Qinhuai River levee risk management and decision-making.