A Study On The Pattern Of Induced Traffic Volume Of The Newly Built Path In The City

In recent years, the transportation more and more was important in the national economy status, the urban development was faster and faster, and the path construction was bears the brunt, therefore a future traffic volume forecast became one foremost link. Future the volume of traffic generally would be divided into the tendency growth traffic volume, the induced traffic volume and the shift traffic volume, in which the quantitative analysis of the induced traffic volume was difficulty. But it also was the technical reference of the path construction investment.This paper mainly was to limit the reasonable connotation and to put forward the effective means and the developmental trend of the induced traffic volume. From the primary factor with the land utilization, the transportation impedance, and the economical development etc to analyze the main connection influence factors. The primary data was gained by investigates and studies fieldwork. With the STATISTIC6.0 put up the modeling, then analyzed the advantage and disadvantage of the each kind forecast method, and carried on the correlation confirmation.The findings indicated that, the developmental trend of the induced traffic volume in the city exists in the universal law, may divide approximately into forms, the fast growth gradually, the relatively stable three growth stage, also presents the obvious LOGISTIC function distribution;The developmental trend of the induced traffic volume in the city to be possible through the gravitational model, to tempt stage, grey theory methods and so on increases the economy, divides carries on the computation and the analysis, the entire computation process mainly must pass through the path and the peripheral investigation, the total quantity calculation, the confirmation and the fitting and so on four steps;The different path the rate of rise is different in under the correlation factor restriction, in the concrete path reckoning needs to carry on the demarcation through the concrete investigation result to the model. The paper take the data of the fourth street of the Harbin School and the healthy and peaceful road .observe point continual three year actual sample numbers as the concrete model, the statistics indicated the land utilization, the transportation impedance, the economy develop three variable data to obtain the way quite to be accurate, operational and it is a feasible reckoning way.