Research On The Trend Of Ebinur Lake Area Change Effect On The Railway Along The Lake

The Ebinur Lake is a typical plain lake of Xinjiang. With the 50 years double influence caused by the climate of the catchments and human activity, Ebinur Lake area takes on a dynamic trend. Because of its unique geographical location, the great change of the lake area has become a hot issue concerning the safety of the North railway of Xinjiang. This paper studies Ebinur Lake area in annual and age scales, finds out there are remarkable annual and age changes. Based on the analysis of causes of Ebinur Lake area dynamic changes, the research concludes that the lake area change generally falls into two phases. Phase I: 1950s～1980s.in this phase, humans'limited cognition of nature laws, increasing demands caused by population explosion and unreasonable utilization of natural resources lead to the sharp decrease of runoff volume and shrink of the lake area. The Ebinur Lake area change converses from the condition subordinate to nature to human activity. Therefore, human activity contributes more to the lake area. Phase II: from 1990s till now, with the ecological safeguards in this area carried out, the gradual increase of population and farmland, the prevalent application of water-saving irrigation technology, together with the climate of North Xinjiang becoming warmer and wetter, precipitation and runoff volume increasing lead to the increase of runoff volume as well as the comeback and expansion of the lake area[1～3]. Therefore, the climate change in this area contributes more to the lake area.This paper systematically analyzes the environmental effect of the Ebinur Lake area dynamic change and its influence on the railway along the lake, and the research establishes water balance equation of the Ebinur Lake, chooses the two characteristic phases, 1991～1992, 1998～1999, for computing, and concludes that since 1990s, water storage whether in low water period or in high water period is less than that of 1960s, whose lake area was 800km2, And this area basically can reach the target of optimal eco-environment benefit. Therefore, the general trend of Ebinur Lake's development in the future is in water shortage. In some special periods, the annual and age lake area sometime will exceed 800km2～1000km2. But the frequency is not high, it will have less effect on the...