Study On Throughput Prediction Model Of Main Port In The Bohai Bay Port Cluster

In recent years, our country economy very fast development aroused the fast growth of the transportation industry. The around bohai bay region is the third economic expansion poles, followed by the Yangtze River delta continent and Pearl River delta continent. Each port in the around bohai bay region had the common economic hinterland; competition and cooperation were a very complicated. The main ports' throughput prediction of the bohai bay port cluster can made us to know the important of cooperation, competition and the harmonious of development. As the importance parts of port development planning and possibility research, port throughput prediction can give us a direction of the development strategy and the management strategy etc. avoid port repeat construction, make the resources to the reasonable distribution, and let the port play to maximum utility. The text research has the important theories meaning and actual applied reference value of engineering.The throughput of port is affected by many factors, the correlation between these factors is complex, but they also are restricted by the certain regulation, if we had the ability to know the variety and internalities contact of these factors, mastered the regulation of these factors variety, so we can choused the appropriate model to predict port throughput.Based on a study of the influencing factors to ports throughputs, this paper analyzes the relationship between the factors and the throughputs, used the linear regression prediction models to forecast the throughput of nationwide, so the coastal ports can be achieved, then based on the relations of the whole and the part, we can got the throughput of Tianjin, Dalian and Qingdao port; in addition, this text choused to use three models of trend extrapolation model , and made the detailed introduction to these three model's principles, e.g. the Logistic growth curve Model, grey system model and exponential smoothing model to Predict the Tianjin, Dalian and Qingdao ports' throughput, compared these results, got three ports' throughput in 2007 and 2010 years.