Study On City Road Traffic Volume Forecast

Traffic volume forecast is an important link in preparatory work for road construction in the city, is an important basis on technical grade, construction scale, economic benefit evaluation,project decision.Traffic volume forecast of the level and quality of city road engineering is related to the feasibility and necessity, but also related to whether the construction standards and construction scale is reasonable,but also related to whether it can take into account the prospective development of the city,to ensure the city road within a certain number of years to play a role.This paper expounds the prediction theory and method in urban road traffic, including traffic generation and attraction prediction,traffic distribution, traffic mode split forecasting, traffic assignment,and through the theory and method of traffic of Bengbu City Project in Jiefang Road to predict. The main achievements are as follows:(1) analysis of the commonly used prediction method of trip generation, and discuss the conditions of use and scope of generating model of these methods, on the basis of the growth factor method and gravity model method, the long, short-term traffic distribution forecast.(2) the analysis of non equilibrium and equilibrium traffic assignment model, and introduces the traffic assignment in recent years are often used to model-SUE(stochastic user equilibrium assignment model), summarizes the steps of the algorithm of the model.(3) on the basis of theoretical research, taking Bengbu city of Jiefang Road as an example,the urban road traffic capacity prediction. Application of prediction model, prediction of traffic volume calibration, from the point of view of traffic safety and traffic capacity of city road lane and the lane width, provides the theory basis for the design of urban road, but also to other small and medium-sized cities, urban road planning and guiding significance.