Modeling For Transportation Demand Of Highway Passenger Terminal

Modeling and Forecasting of transport terminal demand is foundation and key of transportation planning. Improving current modal adapted to make them more valid and feasible and developing new models which can explain and express the essence of terminal transportation demand is very important t as to make transportation planning more valid and being understudied easily by public.This thesis reviews Chinese transportation development, introduces the status of practice and research of highway terminals; chiefly summarizes development process of Land Use Transportation Model whose core is four step model; proposes highway passenger terminal(HPT) network concept and define its transportation demand; discusses the forecast' character and type, especially introduces popular math forecast methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis, Gray System Model, etc, and compares their deviations by an example; chiefly discusses some newly emerging methods such as Neural Network, Support Vector Machines and Genetic Programming simultaneously ..After discussing basic theories and methods involved in studied problems, the thesis analyzes whole process forecast highway passenger terminal demand; with comprehensively considering data demand from math calculation and data availability, proposes Indirect Model to forecast transportation demand of highway passenger terminal (HPT), and uses an example to explain model's procedures; explores the deviation distribution to calculate HPT's transportation with another city model and finds out that deviation is too big to adopt. Based on analyzing their spatial character of HPT and trips, sets up bi-level structure network model of HPT, which is integrative network of commuting network and intercity network of HPT. So transportation demand of HPT can be converted into two types of demands: one is from commuting network and the other is from intercity network. Finally researches how to forecast such two demands according to theory of four step model and intercity model.