| Recent years, China has been confronted with the problems of traffic pressure because of the speedly development of economy. Metropolitan railway traffic is a pattern of passenger transport which possesses shortcut, safe and efficient speciality. The best approach is actively developing metropolitan railway traffic system. At the same time, metropolitan railway traffic construction possesses some characteristics: highly cost, years of programming, strong comprehensibility, numerous fields. So reasonable programming and scientific forecast about passenger flow can ensure railway traffic playing the important role.Basic methods of transportation planning are still adopted in the urban rail transit passenger traffic volume forecast at home and abroad: on the basis of city traffic passenger volume, model-split model is used to forecast the passenger volume of the urban rail transit. Considering this particularities, the paper inducts competitive cooperation strategy according the relation between the traffic modes and the rail transit. In addition, the competitive models on the rail transit and conventional public transit are emphatically analyzed, including the time value of passengers and the parameters in the models.The net line and the passenger volume of urban rail transit are confirmed by some supply model or demand model according to the given demands in the traditional forecast methods of passenger flow. But the interaction of the supplier and the demander always be ignored. According to the interreaction of the government department and the traveler in the urban rail traffic construction, the paper inducts the thought of bilevel programming and establishes the methods model based on four-stage method. The methods of equilibrium traffic assignment and optimization of objective function can ensure the scientificity and precision of passenger flow forecast outcome.At the last of the paper, the railway traffic passenger flow in Chang Sha is forecasted as a example.
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