| Ministry of railways plans to construct 18 new hub stations in the 11th Five-Year Plan period, upgrading the railway container transport capacity and transport services to facilitate the coordination of an integrated transport development. Volume forecasting is important in the early stage of hub stations construction, analyzing and applicating of the forecast data which is the origination of hub station design and the construction, and is the foundation of item scale and economy estimate.Because the predictive method own limitations and the confine of the predictive person's knowledge, experience, the predictive result is not satisfied in many practical prediction. So choosing the appropriate predictive method will assure predictive nicety. In the instance, it is very important that put forward a kind of efficient predictive method about the new hub station volumeThe article studies transport situation of railway container in domestic, the factors of the railway container volume are analysised detaily, which forecast railway container trend of development. Referring to research results of volume forecasting and learn from various volume forecasting method,to propose a scientific prediction method of hub station volume.First, the building of regression model and gray model, the hub station volume trends forecast using the combination of two model portfolio model, the volume predicted trends; Secondly, the establishment of Fratar model Prediction hub station volume distribution; Third, the gravity model is established to forecast the induced container volume. The sharing-model is builded based on utility function to predict the transferring transportation volume. Finally, the predicted future hub station total annual volume.Hub station in Chengdu as an example of this article, the prediction method of applied research, and establish a corresponding model come to a hub station volume forecasting results.The results show that the prediction method is more practical significance.
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