Research On Traffic Demand Forecasting And Evacuation Planning Of Large Special Event

Large special events bring about great impact to urban traffic, how to ensure the safety, speed and unblock of traffic evacuation and reduce the impact on normal traffic during large special events is a difficult problem to traffic manager. According to research both in China and abroad, with the base of inquiry of large special events and the traffic characteristics under large special events, traffic demand forecasting, traffic management planning design and simulation evaluation of the large special events evacuation are studied .The main contents of this paper are as follows:The evacuation characters of traffic demand management and traffic flow are analyzed, the main technology of large special events such as traffic demand forecasting and traffic management is illustrated based on the summarization of large special events research.According to achievement and application of the Four Step Travel Demand technology, traffic demand forecasting is studied. Because audience trip has all-to-one characteristic, the result of audience generation forecast can be regard as trip distribution forecast result, then considering the distance difference, audience generation model is established. In allusion to the characters of large special events, using the transfer matrix, mode split method is established. Considering the time wave character of traffic evacuation, traffic time distribution model is established with audience and parking property, and the forecasting is implemented by programme. On the base of the former forecasting results, the largest hour traffic demand is obtained.The goal and principal of the large scale events evacuation planning are introduced. The evacuation planning design process of large scale events is analyzed, during the planning design of large scale events, the evacuation routes are the key question.The routes are divided into 2 parts, and designed part by part. The traffic resource management (TRM) is brought about to ensure the evacuation routes, the methods included in TRM are introduced, and are analyzed in the term of traffic impact.How to express the management methods in the simulation software is studied both in Macro simulation software TransCAD and Micro simulation software VISSIM such as: network establishment, data input and management methods input. Some criterions to analyze the planning is chosen for the characters of the software as well as the evaluation need, they are traffic flow, VC ratio, delay, queue length and evacuation time. And two evacuation planning of 6th National City Sports Game in Wuhan are designed, which included the evacuation routes and management methods, and both of the evacuation planning are simulated and analyzed. At last the key places needed emphasis and management are pointed out by whole evacuation process simulation of a complicated area, and the traffic wave of evacuation is analyzed.The models and methods in this paper are brought forward in allusion to the traffic evacuation of National City Sports in Wuhan as though, the research thought and methods adopted in the paper can be derived from the paper and applied to other large special events in China.