Study On Emergency Traffic Coping Strategies During Urban Large-scale Events

With the acceleration of urbanization, the increase of comprehensive capability of the city, as well as the rapid improvement of people's material cultural level, urban large-scale events held in the city have become more frequently. A large number of people and vehicles gathered in a very short time and limited space during the large-scale events. The evacuation of traffic flow is not only bring greater pressure to the city traffic that has been already very serious, but also increase the frequency of potential emergency.The currently theoretical researches on emergency evacuation are relatively well, while the practical experiences are notably lack. This thesis conduct a questionnaire survey on the evacuating behavior characteristics and coping strategies, and analyze the characteristics of large-scale events from the aspects of the psychological feature and behavioral decision-making in the accidental case, the characteristics and process of information transmission when people retreat, and so on. On that basis and according the traditional "Four Stages Method", this thesis carries out the research on the traffic demand forecasting method. Finally, the closing ceremony of the "Twelfth National Games" at Dalian's central stadium is selected as an example to forecast its traffic demand, and simulate the traffic assignment by using traffic simulation software TransCAD. Then the emergency evacuation plans which contain enclosing regional sections and implementing signal control are introduced based on the simulation results.This thesis mainly discusses the information transmission, traffic demand forecast and evacuation plans, and carries out specific case study, which has leading meaning certainly for traffic management on city's large-scale events, can give pointed research meaning and research method to the traffic system to against the large-scale events, so as to provide scientific and effective technical support for emergency transportation decision-making, and for urban safety management department building up emergency response plan and its efficiency of implement.