The Research Of The Traffic Demand Forecast Methods Of The Large Special Events In City

The holding of the large special events can enlarge the influence of the city in the country as well as in the world and also can accelerate the development of city economy. At the same time the large special event with the characteristics of strong gathering and evacuating of traffic, short-term and unbalanced in the distribution of temporal and spatial could bring tremendous impact to the urban traffic system. It is a challenge to the research of traffic engineering to ensure the convenience, safe, punctual and comfortable trip, and to reduce the impact on normal resident trip during the period of large special events. For this reason, this thesis studied on the theory and methods of traffic demand forecast of city large special events.Based on the summarization of large special events research from domestic and foreign, this paper analyzed the definition and the type of large special events, and determined the scope of the study. The the traffic characteristics of large special events was study, including the character of the traffic demand, the traffic flow and the audience's trip. The trip of audience is unconventional under special events, so the traffic demand is distinct difference to the normal city traffic demand , which has the characteristics of provisional traffic, disequilibrium travel, high demand and so on.According to the theory and method of the Four Step Travel Demand, the principle of the traffic demand forecast of special events was expatiated , and the technique of traffic demand forecasting was studied. The destination (or origin) of the audience travell is determinated, so the result of audience generation forecast can be regard as the trip distribution forecast result. On the basis of researching the strengths and weaknesses of variety forecast methods , the generation and distribution forecast model based on the gravity model was established, which considering the factors of the travel distance, economic ability of the zone residents, the convenient traffic conditions and so on.By studing of the type of special events and the flow of the audience to choose the trip Mode, the Logist traffic model-split forecast model was established based on the theory of individual utility-optimization, which considering the macroscopic-level and microscopic-level factors, such as the individual characteristics of the audience, the characteristics of traffic mode, control policy of traffic , the characteristics of large special events and so on. And theory of the characteristic variable, the estimation of parameters, the statistical tests and so on were studied. The model-split forecast model was solved by using the SPSS software.Through the analysis of the balance and unbalance traffic assignment model, the unbalance assignment method was used to assign the traffic folw in the large special events, which has disequilibrium and all-to-one characteristic.Finally, this paper took the International Women's Foot match of Chinese to Denmar in September 12, 2007 in Wuhan Sport Center as the example and used the above research result to forecasted the traffic demand. And result proved this traffic demand is better than others.