A Study On The Stochastic Road Network Design Method Based On The Travel Time Reliability

Insufficiency of construction fund is the bottleneck of transportation development. How to use the construction fund reasonably is the key to solving transportation problems. The essence of the transportation network design problem is to find a set of link improvements or link additions to the roads on the existing network to optimize some appropriate objects to use the finite transportation construction fund reasonably. This problem has been recognized to be one of the most difficult and challenging problem in transport.The road network reliability has been paid more and more attention along with the improvement of the travel demand. If the network design and the network reliability analysis could be incorporated, the investment could be used better and the network capacity could be improved.Based on the above consider, elastic demand stochastic road network is reached in this thesis, the system optimal index is aimed at, the stochastic road network bi-level planning model is established based on the travel time reliability. The up level model has two kind of object function, one is to minimize the negative system surplus under the investment restraint, the other is to minimize the summation of the construction investment and the negative system surplus. The low level model has two forms, one is the single user elastic demand stochastic equilibrium assign model, the other is the multi-user elastic demand stochastic equilibrium assign model. The solution algorithm of the bi-level planning model is designed in this thesis based on the H-J algorithm and the logit method. The model and algorithm is analyzed and verified and a satisfactory result is got through concrete example.