The Forecast Analysis Of Changchun-Jilin Highway Traffic Volume

Traffic is the basis of planning and evaluation for freeway. Traffic volume forecast can reasonably set grading scale to meet the demand of highway traffic. Traffic volume forecast is the key for the high project planning and the forecasting results affect its planning. Paying attention to traffic volume forecast and improving the accuracy of forecasts can greatly reduce the loss and waste because of designing errors and improve social and economic efficiency. Therefore, the traffic forecast is important to highway planning and evaluation.The highway is the special traffic lane for a high-speed vehicle. Because of restricting access, separating motion, special-purpose for automobile, grade separation, higher standards and improved transport facilities, the vehicle can moving largely, rapidly, safely and continuously. Freeway traffic decides the benefits of the highway project. The scientific and reasonable forecast of the traffic which provides the basis for analysis and evaluation of highway construction project make us knowing the development trend.In this paper, there are five chapters which are studying on traffic forecast of Changchun-Jilin highway, as follows:Chapter one, introduction. Introduce the research background and significance, research status and development trends in our country and abroad of this thesis, the main contents of the study and the technical route.Chapter two, highway capacity analysis. Firstly, an overview of capacity and level of service, including vehicle conversion factors and the theory of capacity and the service level. Secondly, the detailed contents of the capacity and the service level of basic section on highway, including the definition and features of highway, the division of basic sections for highway, actual capacity and service level of basic section.Chapter three, study on the methods of highway traffic forecast. Firstly, introduced the definition, presentation and influencing factors of traffic and expounded the theory of forecast on the basic of concepts, characteristics and categories of forecast. Secondly, cleared about the purpose and significance of traffic forecast, introduced the content, basic principles and procedures. Finally, introduce three forecast methods of highway traffic volume, including Times series model, Linear regression model and Combination forecast model.Chapter four, Changchun-Jilin highway future traffic volume estimating demonstration analysis. First, introduce the highway situation, clear about the necessity to forecast the traffic volume in the future; Next, analysis and forecast the designed capacity and the actual traffic capability of ChangJi highway; Once more, analyze the present situation of the road traffic volume, forecast the traffic volume in the future using Exponential smoothing model, Linear regression model and combination forecast model; Finally, the analyze and compare the forecast results of various methods, carry on the contrast analysis and the appraisal of combination forecast traffic volume and the basic and the actual traffic capability.Chapter five, summary and forecast. Summarize the main research conclusions, point out the questions which must be studied and discussed in the further of this domain.This paper is for the purpose of through conducting the forecast research to the ChangJi highway volume of traffic, find the traffic volume estimating method to suit to our country, giving the suggestion and the assistance for the future traffic volume estimating research, to promote the healthy, stable, and fast development of transportation system and the highway project.