Method Research On Newly-built Highway Traffic Volume Prediction

Content: The rapid development of our national economy has made transportation business and logistic business improve apparently since 2000. However, the development of transportation business and logistic business don't adapt to the rapidly- increasing of transportation demand. And then it has brought challenge to our present weak traffic and transportation nets. Because transportation business and logistic business are businesses that passengers and goods are transferred by way of roads or road nets, their developments have a strong bearing on road development. They are interactive and interacting. Advanced roads and road nets will improve developments of these businesses, and will finally accelerate social economy. Rapid development of social economy will accelerate developments of these businesses. Well-planned-and-structured roads and road nets are very important to transportation business and logistic business and even to the whole national economy. The prediction of traffic volume is the basic of the planning and constructing, and the result of prediction is the necessity of the feasibility of a project.At present, the time value is much attached. Besides air transportation and rapid railway transportation, highway transportation is another pervasive way, and it will continue to bring into play and important role in passenger and goods delivery. The mileage of highway has been larger and larger. The dominant job in the highway planning and constructing—precise prediction is becoming more and more important in the era of brisk development of highway. Meanwhile, with more and more research and application on the present popular Four Phrase prediction method, its problems such as zone split and prediction cost come out. In this situation, the topic for study of method of newly-built highway volume prediction is raised.Many experts and researchers at home and abroad have done some research on the methods and applications of highway traffic volume forecast, and some research have been formed theory.The study of this paper is based on these research and theory. At first, the paper gives an initiative analysis of the factors that affect the traffic volume of highway. Secondly, frequently-used Four Phrase method and theory of Disaggregate Model are shown retrospectively. Thirdly, it brings forward prediction method of traffic volume of highways and revision methods for prediction results. Basic traffic volume, diverting traffic volume and lure-increasing traffic volume are predicted by Disaggregate model, Diverting method and Growth Curve method respectively. And predictions of Aggregate model and Disaggregate model are revised by Combination Prediction method and Regression Analysis respectively. At last, the prediction method is applied to Xuan-Ning Highway.