On Assessment Of Ship Navigation Safety Of The Singapore And Malacca Strait And Its Adjoining Waters

The Singapore and Malacca Strait is one of the busiest ocean passages through which half of the total amount of shipping crude oil and 1/3 commodity trade of the world being transported. In 2005, China imported 1.27 hundred million tons crude oil and about 4/5 of which were transported through the Singapore and Malacca Strait. Nowadays there are about 200-300 vessels transit through the Singapore and Malacca Strait everyday, approximately 60% of which are from China and most of them are oil tanks.It is expected that the oil import will reach 2 hundred million tons in 2010, 1.5 hundred million tons of which still should be transported through the Singapore and Malacca Strait. Such mass transportation of crude oil results in the traffic density increasing at the rate of about 15% each year, and the number of large oil tanks is also increasing. Thus the degree of navigation danger is getting higher and the safety of vessel is getting lower with so many vessels being congested in such a limited water area. Improve the maneuvering and management of the oil tanks when transiting through the channel, also to ensure the navigation safety of the oil tanks and the safety of the transit of crude oil for China, and to protect the marine environment of the channel, Already became the question which the oil tanker and it's the respective company's faced.Hereby the comprehensive assessment system of navigation safety is put forward, which targets the navigation safety of oil tanks in the Singapore and Malacca Strait, basing on the actuality of the traffic, management and the environment of the channel, starting with the "human-ship-environment-management" system, after analysis on the navigational environmental safety of the channel and various elements affecting the navigation safety of vessels in detail with systematology method, the main assessment index for navigation safety in the channel are chosen. AHP is introduced because of the large number and different hierarchies of the assessment index. The comprehensive assessment model for navigation safety for oil tanks in the Singapore and Malacca Strait is put forward based on the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method- a relatively perfect mature quantity assessment method in recent years. Weights of each corresponding index and the subordinative degree of each assessment element is determined after extensive work with Delphi method. The importance of each assessment element to the navigation safety is determined after accurate calculation and the practicability of the model is validated with actual cases.This model provides relative reliable judgment for decision making and risk avoiding for the safety management for the company and the vessel, and for the navigation safety in the channel.