The sub-sea tunnel project by mining method has the characteristic of high investment, large scale, complicated construction procedure involving many factors serious consequence and heavy effect. Thereby, it is necessary to implement risk identification, analysis and assessment for the construction of sub-sea tunnel early. The results can be reference for project decision.The paper detailed study various parts of construction risk evaluation for sub-sea tunnel project including: risk identification, risk estimation, risk index system and risk assessment. The main contents and achievements of the paper summarized as follows:1. According as the characteristic of the sub-sea tunnel project by mining method, and by detailed analyzing the step of the construction, the complicated construction process is decomposed to base risk factor by knowing and understanding easily.2. Establish construction risk assessment index system using the Analytic Hierarchy progress method(AHP), and confirm relative index weight of each level with 1~9 scales method.3. According as the characteristic of fuzzy in risk estimation of sub-sea tunnel project by mining method, the risk factor is quantified by fuzzy theory, and the experience distributing method base on estimation from expert, the paper solve the quantification issue in risk estimation of the sub-sea tunnel project by mining method.4. Base on R=P×C Model,which considers the collective effect of risk factor occurrence probability and loss serious degree,ascertain the risk level range, accordingly get the risk level of each essential factor. Utilizing fuzzy synthetic evaluation method,get the risk level of each index and holistic risk.5. Take sub-sea tunnel for Jiaozhouwan in QingDao as an example, make risk analysis using textual risk model for construction of fault crushed zone and using fault tree anslysis method for water and mud burst, put forward corresponding measures to reduce the risk of water and mud burst.
|