The Study On Transfer Plan And Forecasting Of Transfer Passenger Flow Between Passenger Dedicated Railway Line And Urban Transportation

With the large-scale construction of the Passenger Dedicated Railway Line(PDL), it will inevitably bring about the seamless passenger transportation between PDL and other transportation modes. The seamless passenger transportation based on PDL has been an important way to enhance the market attraction of PDL and to promote the overall capacity of the integrated transportation system. Many developed countries in Europe and Japan actively develop the seamless passenger transportation; they have paid much attention to the study and implementation of transfer plan between railway and other transportation modes and have established an integrated theoretical and methodological system of seamless passenger transportation. But in our country, there has few study on seamless passenger transportation, it will debase the market attraction of railway passenger transportation without good connection to other transportation systems.The operation of PDL passenger flow depends on the highly efficient urban integrated transportation system. PDL will benefit a lot from the good connection to urban transportation system. At the same time, the travel demand brought about by PDL plays an important role in enhancing the market share of public transportation as well as establishing the dominant role of public transportation in urban transportation.The study summarizes the domestic and international experience of the seamless passenger transportation. The basic requirements of transfer between transportation modes, the systematical analysis of transfer organization, the transfer plan and the forecasting theory of transfer passenger flow are discussed. Then, the transfer passenger flow is forecasted and transfer plan is proposed in the case of transfer between the Beijing south railway station and the urban transportation.The forecasting of transfer passenger flow between PDL and urban transportation modes is mainly studied. In the case of the forecasting, the paper mainly forecasts the passenger flow arrived at the Beijing south railway station and classifies the passenger into everyday trip passenger and railway passenger. For the forecasting of everyday trip passenger, the paper firstly divides Beijing urban area into 63 traffic zones and forecasts the trip production and trip attraction volume of each traffic zone considering the population and economic development in Beijing, then uses the gravity distribution model to calculate the traffic OD volume between each traffic zone. At the stage of mode splitting, the paper classifies the passenger into 5 grades according to their income and establishes the Generalized Fare Function for every passenger grade to forecast the passenger flow proportion of every urban transportation mode. For the forecasting of railway passenger, the paper firstly calculates the volume of the passenger flow arrived at the Beijing south railway station from each traffic zone. At the stage of mode splitting, the railway passenger is classified into 5 grades as well and a different Generalized Fare Function is used to forecast the passenger flow proportion of every urban transportation mode for every railway passenger grade. At last the paper uses the passenger flow taken by bus and metro to perform transit assignment and calculates the passenger flow volume on each transit route. In terms of the forecasted flow, a detailed transfer plan is put forward between the Beijing south railway station and urban transportation.