Research On The Disaggregate Model Of Urban Public Transit Mode Choice And Sensitivity Analysis

At present, in metropolitan such as Beijing appear serious phenomenon of traffic jams, traffic problems should to be resolved urgently. In this background, China's major cities all implement the general policy of giving priority to the development of public transport, various forms of public transport mode have emerged. But because of the various public transport mode with different investment, scope of services and service quality, there are great differences in attract intensity to the passengers, thereby the effectiveness of improving the urban traffic congestion is also different. At this point, this paper research on the rate share of public transport mode and the corresponding mode split model. All above, the mainly contents of this dissertation includes:Characteristics and the present share rate of three main modes of public transport system(concluding conventional public transportation, rail transportation, BRT) are analyzed.Mode split theory is expounded and impact factors of mode share rate are analyzed.Based on the concept of generalized cost, applying the disaggregate model theory Logit mode of public transport share rate is established.Select representative impact factors as a variable rate, using TransCAD with Beijing residents travel survey data, parameters of the established MNL choose model is calibrate.Finally model sensitivity by the attributes of travel, travel mode and passengers is analyzed . Research shows that the non-collection of model can consider a more comprehensive choice of the residents travel in all aspects of factors.