The Post-evaluation Of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecast

With the high speed development of our country's economy and urbanization, the city expands rapidly in scale. With the rapid growth of urban population, a large quantity of floating population pour into the city, resident trip and material exchanges frequently, urban traffic are facing serious situation. In order to relief the more and more severe traffic pressure, many large cities have built urban rail transit or will build in future.Analysis on the urban rail lines which have been built and put into operation, there is great difference between the passenger flow forecast and practical passenger flow, the forecast value is much bigger than the real value, prediction of passenger flow by different institute has relatively large discretion. According to this situation, the paper bases on the thought of post-evaluation, analyzes the passenger flow forecast and practical passenger flow, gets scientific and rational evaluation on predicting passenger flow.This paper firstly reviews the developments of post-evaluation and main methods on predicting rail transit passenger flow, combines the developments of post-evaluation, discusses in detail the management mode and feedback mechanism of rail transit passenger flow post-evaluation.Secondly, analyzes the method of prediction model based on small sample data.Eventually, through analyzing the statistics index of passenger flow, this paper classifies the statistics index and discuss that the different statistics index should adopt the different evaluation method. Meanwhile, through analyzing the risk factors in predicting passenger flow and combining the method of analytic hierarchy process, this article puts forward the evaluation method of the risk factors in predicting passenger flow.