Study On Post-assessment For Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow

URT (Urban Rail Transit) has entered a period of rapid development in China, which is an important way to resolve the urban traffic congestion on the ground and has attached more and more attention from every government. Passenger flow is the fundamental basis for planning, design, construction and all other procedures of the URT, and passenger flow forecast is the basis to make strategic decisions for URT, such as the design of rail transit network, the construction timing of engineering projects, the scale and operational efficiency of URT system. These show that available forecast of passenger flow plays an important role in the design, construction and operation of URT. However, the real condition is very different from what we forecast. It is much crowed in the rush hour and very deserted in other time; in some subway lines, the actual passenger number is larger than the forecasted, but in some others, it is just fifteen percent to twenty percent of the forecasted number. All of these bring big troubles in actual operation of URT system. So it is very necessary to analyze the real passenger flow carefully, find out the reason existed in the huge difference between the real and the predicted passenger flow and provide some suggestion for the actual work. In a word, it's significant for the healthy and sustainable development of URT to explore the development rule and features of passenger flow, build the post-assessment methods and system of passenger flow.The passenger post-assessment (PPA) was regarded as the study object in this thesis. The study was made in the order of finding problems, analyzing problems, studying regularity, bringing up the methods, giving examples, solving problems and proposing to gradually research. Firstly, the definition of the passenger flow of URT was given in this thesis and all factors which affect the passenger flow was analyzed, and then picked out the most important factor. And the critical factors were quantized based on the parameter form and value principle. Finally, the uncertainty in passenger flow of URT was researched, and the reasons about the huge difference existed in the predicted passenger flow and the actual were qualitatively analysised. Thirdly, at home and abroad metropolises became the study objects for quantitative research on the further reasons of these deviations to systematic in-depth study and conclude the universal rules and features of passengers flow of URT and research the rules and characteristics of passengers flow of URT in Beijing, which is the foundation of next step about the post-assessment methods and system of passenger flow. In order to improve actionability and scientificity, the passenger post-assessment(PPA) System was raised innovatively in the first time, which includes the concept and connotation of PPA. In this system, PPA was divided into the overall passenger post-assessment and the passenger structure post-assessment, then PPA model was put forward based on 3 elements, which include urban population element, residents travel intensity element and the traffic share element. What's more, PPA indicators system was given, which contains 3 categories and 17 indicators in the indicators system, such as the all day indicators, peak indicators and others.Based on the previous theoretical study, an example about Beijing Subway Line 5 PPA was given. At first, an overall passenger post-assessment was made using the actual data. Even though the actual date and the predicted date show some difference, they have the same tendency. In our opinion, the main reason lies in the statistics imperfection to the population number. In this way, the reliability and the feasibility about PPA were proved. Then every PPA indicators on the subway line 5 was calculated respectively and the careful analyst was made according to the huge different result in some indicator. Finally, the Beijing Subway Line 5 PPA conclusions were given. What's more, in order to offer recommendations for the practical work, comprehensive suggestions were made in this thesis, which have four aspects, including improving the passenger flow prediction, raising urban transport planning, increasing rail operations management and optimizing proposals of passenger congregation & distraction and application in URT hubs.Because of the shortage of post-assessment studies on the passenger flow, the vast majority of the post-assessment was economic assessment to the projects, this is the first time to research the PPA of URT in China, which means it need further research. However, this study derivate from the phenomenon of large passenger flow deviations, cast off the inaccuracy of passenger forecast, analyze the passenger character directly, which had pioneering significance both in catching the passenger flow regular pattern and characteristic and in guiding the practical work. All in all, the Post-assessment system and its theoretical framework were raised in this paper, and I believe it could provide a reference for the later researchers.