Study On The Critical Techniques For Dynamic Evaluation Of The Status Of Public Transit Passenger Flow And Its Model

Bus transit is the main part of urban passenger transport, and the improvement ofits service level helps to enhance the attraction of bus transit, improve the efficiencyof residents as well as plays an important role in relieving the urban traffic congestion.Accurately grasping the rule of bus transit passenger flow and scientificallyevaluating the load and the unbalanced degree of bus transit passenger flow are thefoundations to optimize the allocation of resources and dispatch scientifically andreasonably. However, currently, the operation and management of bus transit stilllacks a system of comprehensive evaluation index and evaluation method which canreflect the situation of the status for bus transit passenger flow, and the evaluationmethods previous studies establish are somewhat more complex and much theoretical.They cannot be better adapt to the dynamic assessment, and the evaluation level is toomacroscopic, or a certain detail of the bus transit travelling is pursued, which causesthat the guidance of the overall research practice is not strong. Therefore, based on thepresent multi-source bus transit data, this paper establishes the evaluation indexsystem of the status for bus transit passenger flow, studies the appropriate evaluationmethods and provides support for the bus dispatching and optimal allocation ofresources.Firstly, on the basis of studying the domestic and international theories andmethods on the bus transit, the status for bus transit passenger flow is defined fromtwo aspects of the service supply of the bus transit and the demand of the passengerflow. What is more, combining with the development situation of the domestic urbanpublic transport, the factors closely related to the status for bus transit passenger flow,such as the network system of the bus transit, the demand of the bus transit passengerflow, the capacity allocation of the bus transit and the strategy of the bus dispatchingand so on, are analyzed. Moreover, the theories of dynamic equilibrium betweensupply and demand for the bus transit are analyzed and discussed, which provides abasis for establishing the evaluation index system of the status for bus transitpassenger flow.Secondly, based on the structural attributes of bus transit network and therequirements for the service level of bus transit, this paper hierarchically establishesthe evaluation index system of the status for bus transit passenger flow from theperspectives of the characteristics of the bus transit network, the characteristics of theservice supply and the characteristics of demand for the passenger flow, extracts thecritical evaluation index through the data mining technology and the technology ofshort-term passenger flow forecast, and selects the comprehensive index evaluationmethod based on AHP to evaluate the status for bus transit passenger flow in order tocomprehensively analyze and evaluate the bus transit line attributes andcharacteristics of dynamic passenger flow, find out the deficiencies of the bus transitsystem in the process of construction and operation and supply the decision-makingbasis for dispatching the bus transit scientifically and reasonably and optimizing andadjusting the bus network. Finally, this paper selected Foshan city as the exemplary city for application,relying on its current bus transit network systems and the intelligent transportationsystem, evaluates and analyzes part of bus transit lines of the downtown in Foshanand tests the selected evaluation index system and methods with the results ofpractical application.