Research On Vehicle Reasonable Scale Prediction In The Main City Of Chongqing

The paper firstly analyzes the actuality of main districts' vehicle vehicle held in quantity and the existing problems of its quick increase. Then it researches on the policy, social economy, land use, urban highway capacity, energy supply and requirement, environmental capacity of urban traffic system and the factors which influence the development scale of main districts' vehicle in Chonqging. And it defines they are active factors to promote the quick increase of vehicle, that country's macroscopic policy, the Chongqing government's policy, the developing level of social economy and the increase of population in main districts. Especially the stably increase of economy is the most important factor for urban mechanization .Secondly, the paper discussed about the restrictive factors of the increase of the whole population in main districts, land capacity, highway web structure and capacity, parking equipments, engine supply and requirement and urban environmental capacity. At last, introducing some comparatively mature predicting theories and methods of vehicle reasonably prediction domestic and abroad, combining with construction developing plan of main districts in Chongqing, the paper predicts the reasonable scale of main districts' vehicle development. And it predicts the reasonable scale of main districts' vehicle development in the year of 2010 and 2020 and offers decisive basis for traffic requiring management the recycling development and realizing urban traffic's recycling development.