Study On Early Warning For Maritime In The Water Area Of Bohai

Security is an eternal topic in the maritime traffic, and the occurrence of the marine,is a serious threat to the security of life, property, and entironment. Security is relative,and the risk is absolute. The accident which has some laws occurs by stages. The thought and theory of Early Warning maybe can play great role in prenventing or mitigating the accident. Early warning, originated in the military sphere, and then was gradually researched and applied in the economy, natural disasters, social and political areas, in which has achieved good results. The Water area of Bohai which is an important water area in northern China, plays an important role in the development of the economy, and the safety of the navigation in this water area has also drew more attention. In order to improve the safety in this water area, based on the research of the theory of Early Warning and the experience of other fields, this paper applies the theory of Early Warning to the maritime-safety field, and explores the method in the maritime early-warning research.First, in this paper the research and application about the theory of the Early Warning is introduced, and then the meanings of the maritime early warning is analyzed, then the fountain of the alarm in the water area of Bohai is analyzed from natural aspect, ship aspect, personnel aspect and security management aspect. According to the analysis above, this paper establishes the index system of the maritime early warning. Following the experience of other fields, the paper classifies the grade of alarm, considering the factors of casualties, economic losses, and the environmental pollution. On the basis of the research and analysis above, the paper establishes the model of the maritime early warning for analysis, making use of the Counter Propagation Net (CPN). At last, the model is tested by the data of the Roll-pax vessels in the water area of Bohai.