The Study Of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Of Changchun

Water resource is one of the essential resources, which is of great meaning to the security of territorial zoology environment and sustainable development. At the same time, compared to other consumptive resources, it is reproducible, which is an inherent indispensable trait for its sustainable utilization. However, the water resource's sustainable utilization depends on the harmony among nature society and zoology system. Only by the rational utilization constitution and benign circulation, water resource can get sustainable utilization. So, it is essentially required that we should estimate the water resource accurately.Starting from the relationship between water resource and environment, population, economic development, based on the research results of native and foreign scholars, this paper analyzes and discusses the connotation and studying principle and thoughtway of water resources carrying capacity. Due to the character of system of water resources: dynamic, stagger, uncertainty, multiformity, vibration, an integrated approach, system dynamics(SD), is applied to solve water resources carrying capacity in this paper, the city of Changchun has been taken as a case to be studied. On the basis of which, the modeling system of regional water resources carrying capacity study is established. According to the results, some advice to enhance the water resource carrying capability has been presented.The thesis concludes researching background, research method, basic territorial circs, system constructing, forecasting and proposing. Summing up the research history and actuality of water resources carrying capacity, This paper reviews the state of the studies on water resources, the concept, characteristics, quantification and assessment methodology, and points out the definition of water resources carrying capacity. Comparing the four research method often used to investigate, I chose system dynamics(SD). SD is a new method in system analysis in modern times, while it has been increasingly used in solving many problems in recent years, such as sustainable development, eco-environment system, water resources carrying capacity, soil and water conservation, and so on. It is a simulating technique used by computer to simulate dynamic behavior of society, economy and environment, and a useful tool of scientific prediction. Thus SD is an innovative and maneuverable method which can be used to study water resources carrying capacity.Based on water consuming actuality of Changchun in 2005, balanced the supply and demand of water resources, this paper predicts supply and demand of water resources in Changchun. The system has five subsystem: useable water subsystem, industry demanding water subsystem, agriculture, woods, herding, fishing demanding water subsystem, ordinary life demanding water subsystem, sewage disposal and re-circling subsystem. Two targets has been chose to act as the integrated target to scale the water resources carrying capacity: largest population sustained and largest GDP sustained. Every subsystem has its targets, which are used to construct its SD system, while the whole SD system concludes all the subsystems'SD system and the SD relationship between all the targets. Assign the targets with initial value, resort to the software of VENSIM,the results can be calculated. After examined, some target needs to be perfected, and the System would be changed. Meantime, some advice can be educed.To achieve the sustainable development of water resource carrying capability in Changchun, the focus should be on water saving strategies and technology. Deal with agriculture, industry, domestic use different strategies need to be used. science and technology is the only way to reduce the industrial water, and reduce agricultural water will reduce the total water consumption. in the focus of water reuse is water conservation panacea. To enhance water management and improve efficiency of water use, resources and the implementation of sewage water increased; attention to ecological environment water, maintenance of ecosystem balance, increased investment, and to accelerate the construction of water supply projects; unified management of water resources, enhancing water legislative and resource planning. Achieve the zero growth of water consuming will be the management goal of water utilization in Changchun.