Dam Overtopping Risk Analysis In Taoqupo-Reservoir

To date,90 thousand of reservoirs have been built in our country,and they have played important role in the national economy.However,1/3 of the reservoirs are in danger.The reservoir over topping risk research is of great theory meaning and production practice for flood control safety.The overtopping risk analysis theory and risk estimate standard is applied in this paper.The overtopping risk model in the united effect of flood and wave is established combined with the reinforcement project for TAOQUPO-Reservoir.The flood,wave,storage and discharge capacity are integration considered in the model.And the computer procedure is established.The "risk-as-feeling" theory and "prospect theory" in new economics were introduced in this paper.It is pointed out that people should attach enough importance to the perceived feeling to risk.The determination procedure and principle of dam safety risk standard were presented,in this paper.The overtopping risk of TAOQUPO-Reservoir is estimated on the theories above.And the overtopping risk and safety reliability based on the planned flood control operation scheme under the united effect is calculated.The value of overtopping risk is less than the standard value.It indicates that the dam is safe.The study results provide the scientific basis for the reservoir administration agency,and the technical support of exerting the flood control and useful storage of TAOQUPO-reservoir sufficiently.