Research On Risk Management Of Urban Rail Transit Project In Preliminary Stage

The preliminary stage of project is the important period of risk management of the rail transit project. In the preliminary stage of rail transit project, there are a lot of uncertainty factors .The main likely caused risk loss is not fully estimate actual situation and eager to start it at once. This leads to expose many problems in each stage at later stage of project. The result is that the project fails and wastes lots of resources. So, risk management in preliminary stage has a direct impact on rail transit project whether the proper implementation and the realization of operating benefit or not. The aim to researching the risk management problems of the rail transit project in preliminary stage is to effectively avoid and reduce the risk loss of construction projects and ensure the smooth implementation of project, so as to achieve the expected economic, social and environmental benefit that have important theoretical and practical significance.This paper took Wuhan NO.2 subway line as an example and made research on the risk management problems of rail transit project in preliminary stage. Reviewing relative literature and theological methods and taking operational experience from built Wuhan NO.1 subway line and domestic and international rail transit, it has made a qualitative analysis on the public policies, market, technology, organization and management and other risks. It can draw a conclusion from analyzing that project investment, operation income and operation costs are the mainly risks of NO.2 subway line. The risk factors that have the most influence on project investment are engineering scheme, financing plan, construction schedule and levy land and remove. Passenger flow market and fare are the most risk factors that affect operation income. While the project management and financing plan make an effect on the operation income of the project. Based on this, the risk probability analysis model of the NO.2 subway line project has been established. According to analyzing the model, we can draw the mainly conclusion that the project would confront with relatively great risk. Aiming to various risk instances and characters that the project may face up, some corresponding countermeasures against risks have been brought forward last. This paper mainly has probed into the following two aspects. One is to have made research on risk management of urban rail transit project in the preliminary stage .It also has contrasted the built construction and operation of the urban rail transit project with a concrete project from the point of investments, and has made qualitative and quantitative research. The other is to have established the risk probability analysis model of the project and have made quantitative analysis on the risk management of project in the preliminary stage.