Research On The Risk Of Urban Rail Transit Project In The Pearl River Delta Under PPP Model

In order to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion,more and more cities take the subway as the preferred solution.However,the subway construction needs huge amounts of investment,relying solely on the government’s revenue is far from being met.In recent years,our government vigorously promote and encourage to use PPP in urban infrastructure construction,so use the PPP into the subway that is timely and necessary.The combination of urban rail transit construction and PPP mode that is not only can play the advantages of PPP in financing and construction,and can improve the construction quality and the service level during operation.However,due to the complexity of the PPP itself and the complexity of urban rail construction,the urban rail transit project will face a lot of risks,so it is necessary to carry out its risk research.First of all,this paper combs the domestic and foreign research about the PPP to determine the content of the article,the method,technology route.Then we introduces the risk management,PPP,the theory of urban rail transit projects and sorted out the Guangzhou,Shenzhen subway survey data,summed up the status of its development,the existing problems,the construction of Development and future planning.Secondly,it focuses on the risk identification and risk assessment.In risk identification,we use case analysis and expert survey method to identify risk factors,use analytic hierarchy process to establish a risk hierarchy;In the risk assessment,the Delphy expert investigation method was used to carry out the qualitative assessment of the risk;use the analytic hierarchy process and the extension comprehensive evaluation to carry out quantitative assessment of risk.Finally,we select planning Guangzhou metro line 11 as a case,and get the risk factors.We analyzes the risk of the most suitable subject by qualitative assessment.Then use the AHP to determine the risk weight and expert questionnaire method to determine the risk assessment factors value.Finally,We take the extension comprehensive risk assessment method to get the overall risk the risk factors and the risk level of the project,and put forward corresponding measures.The research results of this paper provide a scientific,systematic and comprehensive risk assessment for the urban rail transit PPP project.For the similar projects,it has certain reference value.