The Environmental Risk Assessment And Forecast Study On Tianjin Port Navigable Waters

Marine security is always regarded as a very hot issue,and navigational safety is the most important part.For a long time,the worldwide navigational states have done a great deal of work to ensure navigational security.However,worldwide ship collisions,groundings,overturns,oil-spills,fires,and other accidents have occurred repeatedly and caused serious consequences.Therefore,in order to ensure navigational safety,experts and scholars have done a series of research projects on risk factor identification,risk assessment,and risk forecast.As China's largest comprehensive northern port and the country's main hub port, the sustainable development of Tianjin Port is widely concerned by various aspects. During the Eleventh Five,with the national development of the Binhai New Area,the throughput as well as the passing ships of Tianjin port will increase rapidly.In view of this,this paper chooses the topic on the environmental risk assessment and forecast study on Tianjin port navigable waters.This paper establishes a grid-based navigational risk assessment method and forecast system,taking the current and future risk of port navigable waters as the study object.By being based on the history and the current traffic conditions, analyzing the environmental features of navigable waters,considering the accident features,it established the risk assessment and forecast model of those accidents like collision and grounding.The model can evaluate the impact and the corresponding risks on navigable waters from the changing environmental conditions which directly reflect the geographic distribution of navigational risk and dynamically predicts the future navigational risks.Specifically,this paper's base is on the statistical analysis of nearly eight years of Tianjin port's accidents and the past three years of traffic flow distribution.Using computer software to fulfill the Tianjin Port water's grids,considering the impact of wind,current,visibility,and other natural conditions,it establishes the grid-based and dynamic risk assessment model of the navigable waters and predicts the navigational risks of Tianjin Port navigable waters in conjunction with the development of vessel traffic flow.This paper integrates navigational traffic survey,model establishment,model verification and future forecast together.It proposes the geographical distribution grid-based risk assessment method,which has grid and dynamic characteristics avoiding the superficial evaluation from qualitative methods.In this paper,the results will enable the Marine authorities,the pilot and the related management to the intuitive understanding of the risks in different regions, achieve the rationalization of the distribution of resourcesThe study results will enable the marine authorities,the pilots and the relevant departments to clearly understand the risks in different regions and achieve the rationalization of the distribution of resources.It can be used as technical support for the relevant departments establishing specific management measures on the prevention and reduction of accidents and has strong relevance and significance on the protection of navigable security of the Tianjin Port.