The Sui De Tunnel Project Risk Measurement Of Tai-Zhong-Yin Railway

Recent years, with the fast development of our economy, there is much more increasing of the economic intercourse, and our railway traffic construction has a fast evolve. With the railway traffic going forward and the engineering goes faster than before, there many challenges exist in the safe management.Firstly, in this paper, we summarize the theories of tunnel project risk management. Secondly, we introduce the landform, physiognomy and climate of the Sui-De tunnel project. Thirdly, fllowing the project risk management theory,and base on the relative research results, we early or late make the risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation on the Sui-De tunnel project. Concretely, in chapter 4, we make the basic risk identification include 9 basic risk factors of Sui-De tunnel project from many questionnaires, and construct the basic risk system graph of the parojet. In chapter 5, we estimate the basic risk factors from two views of the probability and the loss,and compute the expectation losses of each basic risks, by what,we give the orders of this risks. In chapter 6, we use the Pereto technique to analyze the Sui-De tunnel project risk classes from controlling the expectation losses,and aquire 4 primary risks wich are F2,F6,F4 and F1, 3 secondary riskes F5,F8 and F9, and 2 generic risks F7 and F3. Finally, we give some elementary suggestions about how to control rative tunnel project risks.Because this paper make dominating to the risk measurement of the frondose projectSui-De tunne but not the whole risk management, so this paper unsuccessfully make much more deep researches in how to effctively control tunnel project risks, by the way, what is the direction of the author make great efforts.