The Forecasting Model For The Route And En-result Of Spilled Oil And Its Application In Maoming Sea Area

The high frequency of accidental oil spilling at sea has greatly raised the public's concern and research. The spilled oil at sea will experience different processes and many complex changes. The route and en-result of spilled oil will be determined by the weathering process, and the weathering process will affect the oil spilling contingency approach. On the basis of the research of the wearthering process, the marine oil spilling forecast model was established and then the route and en-result of spilled oil was forecasted in the paper.The three-dimensional oil spilling forecast model adopt the three-dimensional advection-diffusion equation to simulate the oil slick diffusion. According to Markovian theory, the spreading and drifting of oil slick was simulated by Lagrane and Fokker-Planck euqation, and the random number in the spreading of oil slick is put out.The model established in the paper was used in spilled oil forecasting of Maoming sea area. In the simulation(Longitude111°24′55″, Latitude 21°20′42″), 50 tons of oil were spilled. The model predicts the emulsification, evaporation, dissolution, dispersion and etc.of spilled oil, and it also calculates the variety of the remnant oil. The result demonstrates that this model can precisely predict the excursion, emulsification, evaporation, oil film area, remnant oil and etc. responding to the characters of the oil. This model can provide well calculated results for the sea emergency.According to this, the corresponding spilled oil emergency predetermined plan can be proposed and marine environmental management departments can make scientific decision-making.