The Research On Programming Method Of Dry Bulk Cargo Fleet Based On Fuzzy Random Chance Constrained

In recent years, the requirement of coal,iron ore and crop is promoting quickly in dry bulk cargo market, but the improvement of dry bulk cargo fleet size is slowing down, fleet capacity is obviously insufficient, charter,ship building and financial those relation market are active, lots of ship company expect to join in the market fast, so they could improve the market competitiveness and share. The trading scale of export dry bulk cargo is still keeping improving tide, but the ability of ship building lags behind and the ability of harbor is excessive used, these are all caused demurrage and the inefficient of bulk cargo ship. The amount of bulk cargo along our coastal keeping increased, lots of shipping companies transfer their ocean vessels to costal transportation. Under this background, the strategy of shipping arrangement and fleet expansion seems very important.Due to the high price of modern ship,long term in investing, the investment and renew in ship is one important economic strategy to the shipping company. Fleet programming is one important to shipping company on reasonable arranging fleet; it has relation with the benefit of company, and has effect on the company in future plan, so fleet programming making great sense.The dry bulk market keeping in healthy development generally, but the fluctuant of partial and short-term still exists, lots of uncertainly factor is exist, it increase the risk of sailing. Now the research on fleet expansion and fleet programming are all certainly study, there is only a little refer to random and fuzzy. So how to design the suitable dry bulk fleet programming for shipping company proceeding from reality is real and important subject.This paper pay great attention on dry bulk fleet programming under unfixed environment, by mathematical statistics simulate operating parameters, bring uncertainty theory to shipping transportation, give the fleet programming model based on fuzzy random chance constrained, by GA and fuzzy random simulation compute the result, bring the model to a company which operate coal transportation in coastal in five years, at last I got the credible result.The major aim of this paper is reasonable arranged fleet, so the fleet could follow the production, understanding and well making used uncertain factor, cutting down the risk of shipping company, improving the whole using efficiency of the fleet, improving the competitiveness of shipping company.