Research On Risk Analysis Method For Dam

Dams are structural barriers built mainly for water management (such as irrigation, hydroelectric power and/or flood control). If dams are damaged, there will be risks for loss of life, society and economic loss. The purpose of this study is to integrate these researchers' work and put forward a model of evaluating criteria of dam risk, in order to improve deficiency of traditional assessment method. The main contents are as follows.(1)In this paper, data of dam-break and other failure events at home and abroad is analyzed and the deficiency of assessment method is discussed.(2) In this paper, Multi-index integrated evaluation methods, which contains the layer analysis method, fuzzy integrated evaluation method, main component method and so on, are used for establishing the risk identification model of dam operation. The two problems, which contains the first one is that different people will arbitrarily create different membership function at same issue, and can not compare the results of the model and the second one is that the evaluation factors may have mutual relations between each other, which will affect the result, have been solved. Based on fault tree and vague set theory, a model of evaluating criteria of dam risk, in order to improve deficiency of traditional assessment method, such as lack of fuzziness and flexibility, and to be used for making safety and reliability evaluation for complex systems, is put forward.(3) In this paper, it seems to agree that it should be two steps to analyze dam risk: the first step is to confirm the probability of dam failure, and the second step is to estimate loss of life, society and economic loss. In the first step, this paper illustrates the study about the probability of dam-break at home and abroad. In the second step, this paper from the four areas (loss of life, economic loss, loss of social environment, and indirect loss) discusses the loss of dam-break flood. This paper appraises the loss of life in overseas method and analyzes the economic loss by establishing mathematical model and based on system dynamics and grey theory, a model of evaluating criteria of economic loss of dam-break flood is given. Finally, indirect loss is analyzed in numerical simulation.(4)In this paper, a summary of the work and view about the developing trend of the analysis system to dam risk in the future are given.