Key Technologies Of Dam-break Life Loss Risk Assessment Research

The subject was donated by the World Bank to Jiangxi dam safety technical project.This paper systematically analysis the reservoir dam breach probability, calculation of life loss of dam-break and standard-setting to Dam-break risk. Dam dam-break loss of life risk is an important part of risk management, their research results will increase the dam-break flood movement description, explanation, prediction and control capacity, flood control for river basin planning and flood control and provide a theoretical basis and analytical tools. Dam can provide a basis for reinforcement design, and dam safety risk decision-making and dam safety management all have great significance.This paper summarizes the situation of risk of life loss at home and abroad, including the risk of dam-break studies, dam-break flood studies, estimates of dam-break loss of life of research and study of dam-break loss of life risk criteria.Based on analyzing the dam-break documents and summarizing the destroy model and the main reasons, then it build an event tree according to the destroy model. This paper took fault tree analysis and Expertise France to calculate the probability of occurrence of the Combination of the various links on the event tree, and used the application event tree analysis estimates the probability of the dam burst.Fatherly study was based on predecessors who have been routed to the eight proposed dam dam-break risk populations f values, it have been adjusted mortality rates. China's dam-break risk to the life of the establishment of the standard method, proposed a set of currently applicable in the loss of life and risk analysis of dam the life of the individual risk of the use of standards and standards of the recommended value of social risk to life.Finally, use ArcGIS and the U.S. National Weather Service's BREACH software and finite element numerical model to calculate the flood dyke breach and the flood serious of the former remedial measured Youluokou reservoir dam which happened at the 5000-year flood event, using this adjustment formula and Graham method to estimate the value of loss of life, and applied risk criteria proposed in this paper to analyze the result of the risk of the loss of life.