Research On Dam-break Risk Analysis Of Small Reservoirs

So far, China has built more than 87,000 reservoirs, of which there are more than 83,000 small reservoirs, and accounting for 95.4% of the number of reservoirs, most of which are dams. Sisty years after the founding of our country, 3462 dams have been broken, which has 3,336 small reservoirs, accounting for 96.4% of the total dam failure. Serious problems of small reservoirs have become difficulties of dam safety management and weak links, and our country has increased investment in reinforcement of the small dangerous dams in recent years. In the central rural work conference held In December 2007, the Party Central Committee and China's State Council be sureto basically complete reinforcement task of the national small and medium-sized dams within three years, and Shandong Province explicitly requires to complete reinforcement task of small dangerous reservoirs of the province before the end of 2010.However, due to the large number of small reservoirs with many different conditions, the policy makers have a difficult question to ensure the safety of reservoirs and enable the projects to get the most out of limited economic investment.In order to use limited funds to the small reservoirs which are the most in need for reinforcement, there is great theoretical and practical significance to strengthen studies of the small dams risk-analysis and risk-assessment for small reservoirs to provide scientific basis for decision making.In this paper, the object is the regional small reservoir dam. On the basis of risk analysis, summarized the characteristics of small dam break, combined with a small reservoir of statistical information on the small reservoir dam break, analyzed the risk of the small dam break and focused on the break for each risk of dams. According to dam failure probability and the dam-break analysis, the introduction of dam failure evaluation function to calculate the risk index of dam, take comprehensive evaluation of the introduction of dam-break failure function and risk index as the measure of the size of the target to establish a complete system of small dam break risk analysis.Analysis and comparison of the probability of dam-break and dam failure of single-seat small reservoir dams, whose method for determining the risk of dam failure is obtained to provide the basis for reinforcement of it. Theoretical results was applied to Lizi valley reservoir and through evaluating comprehensively the total probability of dam-break and dam failure before reinforcement of the dam, learn that Lizi valley reservoir dam failure may occur, and dam failure is extremely serious and require immediate reinforcement measures.Analysis and comparison of the probability of dam-break and dam failure of several small reservoir dams, proposed risk reduction strategies and standards for regional small reservoirs to provide reference for decision-making on the ongoing strengthening risky dams. Eight small reservoirs typed small (1) in Daiyue District of Taian city, for example, through evaluating comprehensively the probability of the eight dam-break and dam failure, obtained dam-break index for each reservoir, and according to the risk index compared with the size of the probability of dam failure, proposed risk management methods and principles of the eight reservoirs to provide reference to making reforcement decision for the administrative department.There are many factors to impact the risk of small dams. This paper is investigating the dam-break risk ,the most important factor in all elements impacting dam safety, which is able to meet the expected dam risk analysis requirements basically, however it need to be further studied in such problems because of exisiting deficiencies. Taking into account the current satus of small dams, focus on engineering measures and combination of non-engineering measures to solve the problems of the small dams and proceed from the construction of a risk management, cutting down the probability and the loss of dam break to meet the decision-making in reinforcement and operational management of small reservoirs.