Study Of Water Resources Carring Capacity Based On System Dynamics Model In Tianjin City

Based on the summarization of the definition of regional water resources carrying capacity in the literatures and the relation of the sustainable development and carrying capacity, water resources carrying capacity was defined and its connotation and characteristic was discussed.On the basis of water resources caring capacity theory and Sustainable development, a model of Tianjin City water resources caring capacity was built up in this paper. The foundation data of the water resource utilization and water environment the 2000 were used. This model consisted of some important factors, such as population, economy, society, environment and resources, water resources supply-demand and utilization status, and also considered each main factor's correlation.The variety trend of population, economy, water resources supply-demand and water environment of Tianjin City from 2004 to 2020 was simulated by this model. And some core variables were selected as the evaluation indicator to calculate water resource carrying capacity of Tianjin City. Through the analysis and processing of the simulated values, the water resource carrying capacity of Tianjin City and it variety trend in next 15 years.The results indicated that there is a degressive trend of Tianjin City water resource carrying capacity basing on the current status. The economic and social development of Tianjin is not sustainable.Aim at the problem many optimized allocation projects were put forward. And the best solution project was obtained by the analysis and contrast, i.g., development of local water resources, allocating water, saving water and waste water treatment.Through these measures, the water resource carrying capacity of Tianjin city can be improved by 8% comparing with the current status; The radio of supply and demand can be improved by 20%; The ratio of water pollution will fall by 35%.The detail operations and some suggestions of this project were proposed..