Research On System Maintainability Integration Method Based On Bayesian Theory For Panzer Equipment

This thesis studies the integration method of system maintainability in small sample condition. We focus on such problems as how to make the best of maintainance information in all levels of system, and how to integrate them into system maintainability indexes. We prove our method to be scientific and feasible through theoretical discussion and practical example analysis. The main contributions of this thesis are as follows:Maintainability indexes and related distribution conformability methods of panzer equipment are studied. The concepts and meanings of common maintainability indexes, the obtainment of maintainance information, distributions of maintainance time of panzer equipment and validation of them are studied.Confusion methods of maintainance information of panzer equipment are studied, including consistency test of multi-source maintainance information and the determination and fusion methods of prior distribution for maintainability indexes. Based upon them, posterior distributions of the indexes are determined and maintainability assessments are done for units.Based on Bayesian theory, a framework of system maintainability integration is given. By considering a general procedure for maintainability integration, we discuss the obtainment of information and the data processing in each step, through which we provide a way to solve the integration assessment of system maintainability in the condition of small sample.A Bayesian method of integration assessment is proposed. Using prior maintainance information and sample information of each level, this method converts prior maintainance information and sample information of units into prior maintainance information of system. Then, the point estimate and interval estimate for system maintainability indexes are deduced by integrating the sample information of system maintainability.We illustrate our method through an engineering example. Using the proposed integration method, we make the integration assessment of system maintainability of panzer equipment through the obtainment, analysis and process of units'and system's maintainance information. Results show the validity and feasibility of our method.